Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0735
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 09 2023 01:21:55

ACUS11 KWNS 090121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090121=20
TXZ000-090315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090121Z - 090315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms along the international border may continue
to propagate eastward with a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail.
however, the convective evolution through tonight is very uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery has
shown an increase in storm intensity/coverage along the
international border adjacent to portions of southwestern TX. Likely
in response to cold pool aggregation and upscale growth, these
storms are moving toward the border at around 20-25 kt. With current
motion estimates, these storms may cross into TX in the next 1-2
hours if they are able to sustain themselves. The environment ahead
of the ongoing storms is conducive for strong convection, with
3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While not
overly strong, the vertical shear may be sufficient to support a few
organized storm clusters this evening. However, it remains unclear
if storms will be able to organize as nocturnal inhibition begins to
increase. Should storms sustain themselves, very steep mid-level
lapse rates and the extreme buoyancy will support strong updrafts
with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Given the potential for
some severe risk, but also large uncertainty, trends will be
monitored for a possible weather watch.

...Lyons/Hart.. 05/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-AANzCwyqx0nHYbwcFk0AgnUTX_4sb9BXhWH14AuTVfb7qjO2QdRa9di-3NZDRmwgeSrDph2R=
q9WapqkyMGfECf2IxI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28890087 29530063 29790018 29859980 29819936 29709912
            28809888 28199888 27299885 26659903 26619914 26619919
            26659927 27239964 27840006 28230037 28590062 28890087=20


=3D =3D =3D
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