Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 09 2023 01:02:23 ACUS01 KWNS 090102 SWODY1 SPC AC 090100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain most likely from the Ozark Plateau to the Lower Ohio Valley this evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main severe risks. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of Texas. ....Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... The most intense convection so far this afternoon and evening has remained over parts of western into southern MO. Multiple instances of large to very large hail have occurred with initial supercell development. Some recent attempts at upscale growth have been apparent in south-central MO. This activity will continue to pose a threat for large hail in the short term, and the damaging wind risk may increase over the next few hours if a small bowing cluster can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across southeastern MO into western KY, and perhaps eventually western/middle TN. Across IN/OH, convection has struggled to intensify. Based on recent trends in observational and short-term guidance, it appears increasingly unlikely that intense convection will develop across this region this evening. Have therefore confined the northeastward extent of the Slight Risk to parts of central KY and vicinity. ....Texas... Multiple areas of strong to severe convection are ongoing this evening from west into central and coastal/southeast TX. While weakly forced and with modest deep-layer shear present, this activity may pose an isolated hail/wind risk given the presence of moderate to strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates. The potential for ongoing supercells across northeast Mexico to advance eastward into south-central TX remains uncertain this evening. If these supercells can maintain their intensity, then a threat for large hail and severe downdraft winds would exist. Have therefore maintained the Slight Risk across this region for this possibility. ....Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms will remain capable of producing occasional severe hail for a couple more hours this evening as they spread eastward across southern MN and northern/central IA. This convection should eventually weaken as the airmass slowly stabilizes this evening. ...Gleason.. 05/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .