Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 23:21:01

AWUS01 KWNH 082320
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern MO...Far Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082318Z - 090400Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for some flash flooding will exist
this evening from slow-moving and occasionally back-building areas
of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Late-day visible satellite imagery shows multiple
small-scale clusters of showers and thunderstorms developing in a
general west to east fashion across areas of central MO. The
activity is forming along a cold front settling very slowly
southeastward across the region and with aid of a very strongly
unstable airmass pooled up along it.

MLCAPE values of as much as 3000 to 3500 J/kg are focused across
much of central and southern MO, and far southern IL currently.
This coupled with close proximity of a belt of stronger mid-levels
winds and corresponding shear should help yield multiple areas of
rather organized convection heading into the evening hours near
and a bit ahead of the front.

Some consolidation of the storm clusters may occur over the next
few hours, with a general tendency for the convection to begin to
lose some latitude as it drops down into the moist/unstable, but
rather weak low-level southwest flow.

The moisture transport up along the front is rather benign given
the weak low-level flow, and much of the potential for any flash
flooding will be tied into localized instances of slow-moving,
back-building cells and potential cell-mergers heading into the
evening hours. Some hourly rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour
will be possible, with some localized 3 to 4 inch totals possible
where this occurs. The last couple runs of the experimental WoFS
guidance does support this. As a result, isolated instances of
flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4eyZuNp6kZRni5cnzsPTLYmRBbf-rH8SKDBrIpSYnjwa5UB9AfPl92oBTEDQXyU2Bl_S=
-93KKJ0vmurJVT3zwKNNa5c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38409424 38409340 38309269 38129126 38068987=20
            37788889 37128871 36668940 36579031 36679216=20
            37099386 37539460 38179466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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