Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 08 2023 21:57:30 AWUS01 KWNH 082157 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0239 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 556 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Arklatex Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 082155Z - 090300Z SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates may favor an isolated instance or two of flash flooding heading into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...A rather compact vort center and associated shortwave impulse is crossing the Arklatex region currently and this energy is interacting with a strongly unstable boundary layer for at least scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values of as much as 3000 J/kg are noted up across southern AR, and radar trends over the last hour have been showing a general expansion of convection out of far northeast TX and up into areas of southern AR given the arrival of the vort center dynamics and overlap with the pooling of greater instability across this area. The HRRR guidance is not doing well with the current activity over the Arklatex as it has been much more aggressively impacting areas farther south down over southeast TX. Please see MPD #238 for more details on the flash flood threat continuing down across that area. However, the 12Z ARW/ARW2 solutions and also the last couple of runs of the experimental WoFS seem to have a better handle of the ongoing activity lifting into southern AR. A consensus of these solutions favor the idea of some 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals going through the mid-evening hours, and the 90th percentile of rainfall accumulation from the 21Z WoFS run suggests at least an isolated threat for as much as 5+ inches where some of these convective cells at least transiently backbuild and train over the same area. An isolated instance or two of flash flooding will be possible, and the urban corridors in particular will be most susceptible to seeing runoff problems with this activity. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!72fcf1N8dHAA4TIGT5uc7q6VIP8G-vJumu9KeE503ibXTixK5-2hSzSGuDsUBMzxHpBP= XOgXHMeQZAsS0T72dGyP1tE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34319237 34289132 33609112 32959152 32209271=20 32019376 32189449 32719455 33569365=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .