Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0733
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 20:51:53

ACUS11 KWNS 082051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082051=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...parts of far southeast South Dakota into northeast
Nebraska...far southwestern Minnesota...and northwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082051Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and perhaps a strong wind
gust are possible late this afternoon and evening with any of the
stronger storms that materialize. A WW issuance seems unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating has supported temperatures rising
into the 80s F. Given a dry boundary layer, the strong heating is
supporting 7-9 C/km lapse rates from the surface extending up to 500
mb, contributing to 1000+ J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE. Though
tropospheric winds are unidirectional, adequate deep-layer speed
shear is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs. The
aforementioned kinematic and thermodynamic environment favors
multicell clusters and splitting supercells capable of producing at
least marginally severe hail, along with a damaging gust or two
(given the deeply mixed boundary layer). Nonetheless, low-level
convergence is weak given unidirectional flow, with storms expected
to be isolated overall. Given the expected isolated storm coverage,
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_KG1KwCY9m1pc_n3ZiVPKE-s2sgWTzhE6ntfB8TjCnpTN9m6g95xYH8I8QpGjAI7PM2fZdO5c=
n8ltx0prnuwJe6Olhs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42669882 43499779 44079681 44179588 43909462 43499356
            42939330 42419356 42009413 41399751 41399760 41489823
            42669882=20


=3D =3D =3D
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