Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0731
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 19:57:53

ACUS11 KWNS 081957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081957=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaTex vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081957Z - 082200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...At 1945 UTC, an MCV is moving eastward near the Red
River vicinity of far northeast TX/southeast OK, with recent storm
development noted along a weak surface boundary across northeast TX,
and also within an uncapped environment across southern AR. Some
uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible as the MCV
continues to move eastward this afternoon. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
of greater than 3000 J/kg) will support vigorous updrafts, though
weak to modest deep-layer flow/shear may tend to limit storm
organization and intensity to some extent. Some hail threat may
accompany the strongest cells, while locally damaging wet
microbursts will also be possible within the relatively high-PW
environment. With the severe threat expected to remain generally
limited in organization and coverage, watch issuance is unlikely.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ZLBG-x0idROEGNXWVGQpiyRdtv0UyKKHygat1CE--qrTZt_o-_691gOJeGn4fPIrSGH53dFb=
p4GfDHhmYPfHyBk9gU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32459560 34009432 34359300 34109170 33389161 33039171
            32459256 31869357 31539479 31649542 32269555 32459560=20


=3D =3D =3D
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