Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0730
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 19:32:21

ACUS11 KWNS 081932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081932=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...far northeast Iowa into far southeastern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081932Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief landspout tornado or small hail may accompany one
of the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms are slowly growing in intensity per MRMS mosaic
radar imagery along the IA/MN border. These storms are developing
along a baroclinic zone, with mid 50s F dewpoints and 7-8 C/km
low-level lapse rates noted along the warm side of the boundary.
Though modest, the 18Z mesoanalysis depicts some overlap of up to
100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE and low-level vertical vorticity, and this
low-level buoyancy is forecast to only get stronger through the day.
It is not out of the question that a landspout tornado could develop
during the afternoon, along with an instance or two of small hail.
Given the isolated, localized nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not currently expected.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4MOTkgzmmi_c8aVp8yuY9zgIJle8VOzRWATkPaFs59KHNDaDYo01ppTMeHMrZas_aUA7JtEBX=
eHdPx3JNqsNCEbzo_g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43619258 44019273 44839285 45019274 44949251 44429204
            43929172 43299144 42849149 42499155 42409173 42459197
            43109236 43619258=20


=3D =3D =3D
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