Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 08:57:49

ACUS48 KWNS 080857
SWOD48
SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
An upper-level low is forecast to move through the central Rockies
on Thursday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen quickly
across southeastern Colorado. This setup will result in upslope flow
across much of the central High Plains, maintaining low-level
moisture with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s F. In response,
moderate instability should develop across much of the region during
the day. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move
into the lower elevations and should have a severe threat. Large
hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado threat may accompany the
stronger storms.

On Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward
into the north-central U.S. Moisture advection ahead of the system
will likely increase surface dewpoints somewhat in parts of the
Upper Midwest. An axis of instability is expected to develop across
the moist sector by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms would most
likely form along and near a surface trough moving northeastward
across the mid Missouri Valley. The main question is instability.
Current model forecasts suggest instability could remain relatively
weak across much of the north-central U.S. during the day. For this
reason, the magnitude of a potential severe threat is uncertain at
this time.

....Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
The upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward across the
northern Plains on Saturday and weaken, with northwest flow at
mid-levels in much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to advance southeastward from the north-central
U.S. on Saturday into the eastern states by Monday. Thunderstorms
will be possible along and near this front each afternoon and
evening. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible each
day, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak across much
of the U.S., keeping any severe potential on the marginal side.

...Broyles.. 05/08/2023

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