Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0723
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 08 2023 01:26:14

ACUS11 KWNS 080126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080125=20
TXZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...northwest into north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...

Valid 080125Z - 080330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts will become the
primary severe hazard into the mid evening hours as thunderstorm
updrafts become less robust.  Peak gusts with the more intense
downdrafts may range 60-80 mph.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over northwest into north TX
will continue to slowly weaken in overall updraft intensity but the
wind hazard may increase into the mid evening before diminishing by
the late evening.  700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on southern Great
Plains 7pm CDT raobs showed 8.0 to 8.5 deg C/km in association with
an EML.  Dry mid-level air and the lapse rates will support strong
evaporative potential and the possibility for severe gusts with the
stronger downdraft pulses.  A 50-kt gust was recently observed at
Wichita Falls/Shepard AFB at 748pm somewhat removed from a stronger
thunderstorm core.  A few of the more intense gusts may exhibit
characteristics of convection from both heat bursts and active
thunderstorms.  Expecting at least an isolated risk for severe gusts
to continue into the mid evening beyond the expiration of severe
thunderstorm watch 197 (9pm).

...Smith.. 05/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-gFArSlfpgX-PM2T3Z0IDFP35eKzcqMXtqZ2eEOceejyL07UPw5KHW_DRjxYWY3op_Wb5mmDY=
0gCX3empTKf7Xe5OOs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33859976 33849822 33659775 33179762 32579873 31909949
            31970027 32340098 33140088 33859976=20


=3D =3D =3D
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