Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 08 2023 01:25:07 AWUS01 KWNH 080125 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080723- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0236 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 923 PM EDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Southern IA...Far Northern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080123Z - 080723Z SUMMARY...Developing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours may tend to locally repeat/train over the same area. Some areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result. DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES IR satellite imagery shows clusters of strong convection developing and gradually expanding in coverage across areas of southeast NE and into southwest IA as a shortwave trough ejecting east across the central Plains begins to interact with a strongly favorable thermodynamic environment pooled across the region near a wave of low pressure and a well-defined frontal zone. MLCAPE values up across areas of southeast NE, northeast KS, northwest MO and southwest IA are on the order of 2500 to 3500 J/kg, and this coupled with as much as 50 kts of effective bulk shear, and the shortwave dynamics will favor strongly organized convective clusters over the next several hours that will be capable of locally repeating/training over the same area in a west to east fashion downstream across southern IA and possibly through areas of far northern MO going through the midnight time frame. The latest RAP guidance also shows the low-level jet increasing to 30 to 40+ kts which will enhance the moisture and instability transport into the front ahead of the surface low. The 18Z HREF model convective footprint may be a tad too far north heading into the overnight hours as recent HRRR guidance and radar trends suggest areas at least rather close to the MO/IA border may tend to be the focus for the heaviest rainfall over the next several hours going through 06Z. Rainfall rates upwards of 2 inches/hour are expected with the stronger cells, and with any kind of cell-training, some of the storm totals may reach upwards of 3 to 5 inches. Can't rule out isolated heavier totals for areas near the MO/IA border. The antecedent conditions across much of the region are on the dry side based off the latest NASA SPoRT soil data and area USGS streamflow reports. However, with the high rainfall rates and cell-training concerns, there should be a threat for some areas of flash flooding. The evolution of these areas of convection will need to be closely monitored for areas downstream over the Midwest (see MPD #235) involving southeast IA and large areas of IL later in the night as this may favor an aggravation of flash flooding concerns across this region. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ettxC3GSaCDCjqiaeeEmFRckqHvJYKH2vsPAEA4B46eFQb5xJOe2q92VleOh2r3k2Fj= u7cu9AKdysz2n0Ib0TaOve4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41669117 40939172 40339172 39819142 39769310=20 39589482 39609633 40009685 40499681 40709635=20 41189518 41439386 41609259=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .