Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 08 2023 01:02:48 ACUS01 KWNS 080102 SWODY1 SPC AC 080101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central Great Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley through tonight. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ....Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Intense convection is ongoing across northern KS in association with an ejecting, low-amplitude shortwave trough. Additional activity has also recently strengthened along a front/dryline intersection across north-central KS into southeastern NE. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to grow upscale fairly quickly this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. The threat for large to very large hail with the initial supercell activity should transition to more of a severe/damaging wind threat as an MCS develops and spreads eastward along/south of a front draped across IA. With a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present, some of the thunderstorm wind gusts could be significant (75+ mph). Increasing low-level shear this evening may also support some risk for a couple of tornadoes. The threat for severe wind gusts will likely continue overnight/early Monday morning across southern IA, northern/central MO, and eventually western IL. Farther east, robust thunderstorms have produced both large hail and damaging winds across eastern IA into IL. Additional activity has recently developed in a low-level warm advection regime from northeastern IL into IN. These thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward this evening. The eastern extent of appreciable severe threat should be constrained by prior convective overturning. ....Southern Plains... A mix of multicells and supercells will continue for a couple more hours this evening across parts of west into western north TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture are contributing to strong instability along/east of a dryline. While deep-layer shear remains somewhat marginal, large hail and strong/gusty winds will remain possible this evening with the ongoing convective clusters. By late evening, increasing convective inhibition from a loss of daytime hearing will result in a gradual decrease in thunderstorm coverage and intensity. The potential for supercells ongoing across parts of northern/northeastern Mexico to cross the Rio Grande into south TX remains unclear, as MLCINH quickly increases with eastward extent in TX. Still, there may be a small window of opportunity for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts with any thunderstorm that may persist into south TX this evening. ...Gleason.. 05/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .