Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0721
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 23:10:45

ACUS11 KWNS 072310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072310=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...southwest into central IL...Saint Louis MO vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

Valid 072310Z - 080115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be favored with the stronger, new
intensifying updrafts with an unobstructed feed of lapse rates from
the west, through the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic composite shows a
cluster of storms over central IL southward to the eastern portion
of the Saint Louis metro.  This activity has developed in response
to a westward-surging outflow boundary (oriented north to south)
moving through Saint Louis and into west-central IL.  Surface
temperatures west of the boundary are very warm with temperatures
near 90 deg and dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 50s to near 60
deg.  A narrow corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE) is currently analyzed near the outflow boundary.  It
seems plausible a few additional stronger storms will be capable of
an isolated risk for large hail through the early evening.  It
remains uncertain whether storms will develop west of the MS River
in the near term.  However, west-central and central IL will
probably have a renewed risk for severe as ongoing severe
thunderstorm activity over eastern IA potentially moves into
northern parts of severe thunderstorm watch 195 between 8-9pm (9pm
is watch expiration time).

...Smith.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-R5yrLX0QYP29LIFoQTyqSIQONvl1MH_6YEv4IDjRUXMrLeJCh0zGmdYJxgMs1F3ReZc7ZQG1=
XqQTSzw3Ou0BVWZ3ak$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40389015 40308988 39388891 39228893 38978934 38738949
            38358946 38228977 38269010 38639062 39969061 40209049
            40389015=20


=3D =3D =3D
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