Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0720
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 23:03:14

ACUS11 KWNS 072303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072302=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Nebraska...northern
Kansas...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 072302Z - 080030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging winds and large hail is increasing
with storm development expected in the next 1-2 hours. A new weather
watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough evident on
regional water vapor imagery over the central Plains, towering
cumulus was becoming more agitated near the intersection of multiple
surface boundaries from central NE into portions of northern KS and
western IA. Little inhibition remains on SPC mesoanalysis owing to
very warm surface temperatures (> 90 F) and strong diurnal mixing.
As ascent from the shortwave moves overhead within the next couple
of hours, storm development appears likely. Robust MLCAPE ranging
from 1500-3000 J/kg will support numerous strong updrafts with
likely complex storm modes given numerous boundaries and storm
interactions. 40-50 kt of effective shear will eventually support
the development of organized cluster/bowing segments capable of
damaging gusts and large hail. Hi-res guidance suggests an MCS may
eventually develop as multiple clusters congeal and track eastward
with a risk for damaging gusts and hail later tonight. Given the
increasing severe potential this evening, a new weather watch will
likely be needed in the next hour or two.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7x6DXK0NpmGinLVJV8C1U0fMO0eZLhiGoVmgsww4gaPUdxW7poGHASCN2xihWkMu9zaDlMfNJ=
isZ1LgYgQ9uOhqE1Hw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41649486 41139434 40329428 39499473 39519684 39589877
            39609958 40229945 41519907 41689836 41739641 41649486=20


=3D =3D =3D
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