Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 07 2023 22:43:05 AWUS01 KWNH 072242 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-080440- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0233 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 641 PM EDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Central and Northern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 072240Z - 080440Z SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms over portions of central and northern TX this evening may merge or consolidate sufficiently to drive an isolated threat of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...In a routine that is very similar to what happened yesterday afternoon and evening, the late-day visible satellite imagery in conjunction with radar shows several supercell thunderstorms impacting portions of central and northern TX to the east of a very well-defined dryline. The activity is being aided by very strong instability with MLCAPE values across areas of north-central TX of 4000+ J/kg. This coupled with 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear and at least close proximity once again of a low-amplitude shortwave trough should tend to favor organized convection with additional supercell activity heading into the evening hours. Overall, the PW environment is generally near normal for this time of the year with values locally near 1.25 inches, with moisture transport modest given only about 20 to 25 kts of southerly flow up at 850 mb. However, this will still favor at least some of the supercells being capable of producing rainfall rates of as much as 1.5 inches/hour aside from the severe hazards which definitely favor large hail. Over the next few hours heading into the evening, there will probably be a few cell-mergers that occur, with an attempt for the convection consolidate potentially into a small-scale MCS that advances downstream to the east into areas of northern TX. Some spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts will be possible where these more organized and merging cells occurs. This coupled with the fact that some areas of central and northern TX saw heavy rainfall yesterday evening may favor at least an isolated threat for some flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KilQSTT_S_cZYQywAB9PvS8TtoYahKrGfQKeKVhzhFvGVJZnOfs94GWDIQiqf_e_YCm= fBP36kzSTA9XemfNwD7vtNY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34259850 34029764 33359727 32659742 31859808=20 31009958 30660129 30910211 31660217 32570167=20 33520054 34059958=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .