Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0719
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 22:36:42

ACUS11 KWNS 072236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072235=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...198...

Valid 072235Z - 080000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195, 198
continues.

SUMMARY...Several clusters of ongoing storms will likely continue
across portions of eastern IA and western IL this evening. Damaging
wind gusts (some 70+ mph) and large hail will be likely.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of eastern IA and northwestern IL, a
complex convective scenario is unfolding as multiple clusters of
convection are ongoing early this evening. Located along the
intersection of multiple modified outflow and frontal boundaries,
large buoyancy (3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE), will continue to support
robust updrafts through this evening. Observed effective shear of
35-40 kt will support storm organization into multi-cell
clusters/supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts, some of which could be significant.

A locally greater risk for strong damaging winds may evolve across
eastern IA and far northwestern IL tonight as the western most
cluster begins to interact with additional storms over northwestern
IL. Steep low-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km) and the very large
buoyancy will support strong downdrafts, especially with merging
cold pools. Some gusts of 70+ mph are possible across southeastern
and far northwestern IL as storms slowly merge this evening.

...Lyons.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!72yMQ1bXM4pw4WuNfMdM-uZvPpvbxj64Azxwkp25dYHyiW1n5nfZg944w58ZvqNr-LvnmNler=
FZ05QQ-WNtVqkSQ2Po$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   40108976 39919043 40019096 40139125 40469171 40789220
            41209291 41869261 42119198 42319126 42379042 42179000
            41888973 41568946 40958934 40388964 40108976=20


=3D =3D =3D
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