Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0712
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 19:53:44

ACUS11 KWNS 071953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071952=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast MT...northeast WY...and
western SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071952Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and locally strong
gusts should increase this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates
deepening cumulus towers along a stationary boundary draped
southeastward from southeastern MT into southwestern SD this
afternoon -- and isolated lightning flashes are evident in
southeastern MT. Continued diurnal heating (and removal of CINH)
amid modest upslope flow and orographic ascent will eventually
support additional thunderstorm development initially focused along
the boundary and terrain features during the next couple of hours.=20

Regional VWP data shows a belt of 25-30-kt midlevel southwesterlies
overspreading weak low-level easterlies -- contributing to an
elongating (mostly straight) hodograph. Given cold temperatures
aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and gradually increasing deep-layer
shear (eventually 30-40 kt of effective shear), isolated large hail
will be possible with the more organized/semi-discrete cores. This
activity will generally spread eastward later this afternoon/early
evening with some potential for localized upscale growth. While
strong gusts will be possible during that time, increasing low-level
static stability could limit the overall severe threat.

...Weinman/Hart.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-1T9SY7xMcc5ZlmYi-LOPeqt3lVwdYuq-xoEg7QMj6JI2n8c5PXWmQNdX1K_xhaSIw6ck_LQA=
J-v4Rkuspz-ILoWApA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   43900185 43410202 43180245 43210286 43420322 43620345
            43970383 44240424 44500464 44810509 45100558 45470571
            45990543 46190507 46230461 46100401 45860327 45680294
            45390253 44630199 43900185=20


=3D =3D =3D
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