Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0710 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 07 2023 19:11:11 ACUS11 KWNS 071911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071910=20 IAZ000-NEZ000-072115- Mesoscale Discussion 0710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...far east-central Nebraska into central/southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 071910Z - 072115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may accompany an intense cell tracking east across central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Additional, more widespread storms are expected later this afternoon/evening. A watch will likely be needed at some point later this afternoon, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...An isolated, severe thunderstorm has been tracking eastward along a surface boundary with the stronger instability gradient over central IA. Marginally severe hail has been reported with this storm recently over Carroll County. This cell may continue to periodically produce large hail and gusty winds as it shifts eastward along the surface boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon or early evening as a surface low over southeast NE lifts northeast toward the MO River over the next few hours. Various surface fronts and outflow boundaries exist across the area, providing potential points of focus for thunderstorm development. Strong heating and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in moderate destabilization from east-central NE into southern IA. While some capping is still evident near the MO River into southwest IA as depicted by billow clouds on visible satellite, erosion of the cap is more evident further east toward southeast IA where deepening cumulus is noted. Additional heating and increasing ascent later today will support rapid thunderstorm development. However, timing remains a bit uncertain. Hi-res CAMs suggest later development closer to 00z, however observational trends suggest early convective initiation may be possible.=20 Backed low-level flow and increasing 850 mb southwesterly flow with time will support enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. A watch will likely be needed at some point this afternoon (most likely by 21-23z). ...Leitman/Hart.. 05/07/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-qKL4R8P8-0ouogwhZQR_C-scJotSIwUmncIUZnHI0FRMoUVMTptsKuBHJAUCHya57XLYSw3Y= ODNSpLqGQHuTp3xIW4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41679134 41289115 40789134 40679162 40679239 40609487 40649593 40799639 41119686 41479683 41899649 42129591 42319524 42389390 42239285 41929159 41679134=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .