Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0709
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 18:56:10

ACUS11 KWNS 071856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071855=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-072030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...The Texas Rolling Plains into the Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071855Z - 072030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely across portions of
the Texas Rolling Plains and Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...A hot and very unstable airmass is in place across the
Texas Rolling Plains with temperatures in the upper 80s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s southeast of the dryline. This has
yielded 3000+ MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis with a nearly uncapped
warm sector. Visible satellite trends support the eroding CINH with
several towers appearing over the last hour. Convective initiation
is likely in the next hour or two with explosive thunderstorm
development likely. Weak effective shear (20 to 25 knots per SPC
mesoanalysis) will limit storm organization, but the steep lapse
rates, and resultant instability will support a threat for large
hail (some very large) and damaging winds.

...Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9l3u-JTxFp8-R11V4FEz8M-3s8MnH_TgxmWAhzkIvFM-7ot3n6EuipzUSDz9wCA2qMEAL8hSf=
82jfNDm3wdzpheDdsU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34029815 33749819 32749836 31809895 31489992 31460061
            31520148 31720202 31850233 33280121 34439979 34189867
            34029815=20


=3D =3D =3D
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