Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0704
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 13:29:09

ACUS11 KWNS 071329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071328=20
KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-071500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071328Z - 071500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts to 40-50 mph are possible this
morning across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A line of elevated storms will continue to shift
east/southeast this morning on the nose of a low-level jet and along
a roughly north/south oriented instability gradient. VWP data from
KLVX and KJKL highlight the low-level jet well, with perhaps some
weakening of this feature across central KY through the next few
hours as the jet weakens diurnally and shifts east/southeast across
eastern KY. This may limit longevity of organized convection to the
short term. However, dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s F are
forecast to increase over the next few hours. With heating into
early afternoon, additional destabilization and erosion of low-level
inhibition may support a continued risk for sporadic strong gusts in
the 40-50 mph range the next few hours. Given the sporadic and
marginal nature of the risk in the short term, a watch is not
currently expected, but trends will continue to be monitored for
possible increase in severe potential toward afternoon.

...Leitman/Hart.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Eswp3DI5jCgckQE7HejtxOpav36IlsXhXqMfCx0EzysKvkvGo2TpjXFo_sbJ9rBmwahCfkAc=
bRG1y-f8MQg6oxP_Mk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   38868394 38908301 38388247 37808244 37148296 36598383
            36518550 36668649 36998687 37448704 37708701 38228646
            38728544 38868394=20


=3D =3D =3D
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