Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0702
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 09:05:37

ACUS11 KWNS 070905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070905=20
INZ000-ILZ000-071030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...parts of central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

Valid 070905Z - 071030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
continues.

SUMMARY...There appears at least some lingering potential for
further intensification and organization of storms across central
Illinois early this morning, which could lead to a period of
increasing risk for strong surface gusts across and southeast of the
Springfield and Mattoon vicinities prior to daybreak.  It is not
clear that another severe weather watch will be needed, but trends
will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Strongest convection has been maintained along/to the
cool side of the low-level baroclinic zone trailing the forward
propagating cluster now overspreading west central Indiana.  This is
where the most unstable updraft inflow, albeit elevated, remains
focused, supporting upscale growth into a linear band now west
through southeast of Bloomington.=20=20

With southwesterly 850 mb flow forecast to maintain strength through
daybreak before weakening, there may not be much change, with a
gradual southeastward propagation of the stronger convection across
central Illinois.  Although consolidating surface outflow had tended
to surge out ahead of (to the south) of this activity, there still
appears a window of opportunity for some further intensification and
organization of convection which could lead to a period of
increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-3b8YDl2OoDjNpgnuL0Tyz91ifhwzKoqp4h2s23n-0OIUk_cZ4MWf1hCHMT84n2rZgdaVQ1lF=
ilKpGLyEadwsofwLHI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40158986 40048880 39868811 39698756 39368722 38858787
            38988828 39348928 39979021 40158986=20


=3D =3D =3D
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