Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 07 2023 08:54:39 ACUS48 KWNS 070854 SWOD48 SPC AC 070853 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward across the northern and eastern U.S. during the midweek, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Moisture advection will likely take place well ahead of the trough in the Great Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the High Plains both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon on the western edge of a somewhat moist airmass. A severe threat may develop each day, but the greater threat is forecast for Thursday as the upper-level low approaches the central Plains. Confidence is greater in the ECMWF solution, which has an axis of instability from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska late Thursday afternoon, where a severe threat area has been added on Day 5. ....Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move into the central High Plains on Friday, and into the northern Plains on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible each day in and around the vicinity of the upper-level low. Although a severe threat may develop in the northern Plains on either Friday or Saturday, confidence concerning instability remain low. If later runs show more instability in the northern Plains, then a threat area may need to be considered on Day 6 or Day 7. On Sunday, model forecasts show a diffuse pattern across much of the central U.S., with an upper-level trough in the northeastern U.S. This combined with a generally large spread in model solutions, suggests that predictability is low at the end of the Day 4 to 8 period. ...Broyles.. 05/07/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .