Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 07:21:36

ACUS11 KWNS 070721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070721=20
INZ000-ILZ000-070915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...areas northwest through southeast of I-70 corridor
of eastern Illinois and western Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

Valid 070721Z - 070915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Further thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth,
accompanied by increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts,
remains possible during the next few hours.  An additional severe
weather watch may be needed within an hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Given the easterly forward propagation of the small
lead convective system, and south to southwesterly ambient flow
beneath a 30-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet, southerly system
relative inflow currently appears strongest near the
Illinois/Indiana state border area.  Although this inflow remains
generally drier/more stable to the east of the state border, the
Rapid Refresh suggests that low-level moisture advection may
continue to gradually destabilize the inflow across the state border
area, ahead of the southwestern flank of the convective system,
during the next few hours.=20=20

As a result, stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to
redevelop east-southeastward, and generally remain southwest of the
Indianapolis area.  However, there does appear at least some
potential for substantive further intensification, accompanied by
strengthening northwesterly rear inflow and downdrafts, and
eventually a risk for strong surface gusts.

...Kerr.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!50kcixwaK0HiWUCLtVnm32McFxdiuE_yq2cF5nKI7zjX-dawMk4kdN3Fo1SU3aABJtwDFdlor=
6PIhiGujL0vJHto90c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   39698876 39638767 39888728 39648596 38968664 39088832
            39698876=20


=3D =3D =3D
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