Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0700
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 06:38:07

ACUS11 KWNS 070638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070637=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-070830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent
northeastern Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191...

Valid 070637Z - 070830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191
continues.

SUMMARY...Remaining valid portion of Severe thunderstorm Watch 191
may be locally extended an hour or two, with trends continuing to
being monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Even as one mid-level short wave perturbation
progresses eastward into southern portions of the Great Lakes
region, low-level warm advection and elevated inflow of seasonably
moist air characterized by large CAPE remains focused
above/northeast of a trailing convectively reinforced surface
boundary.  The associated baroclinic zone extends roughly from the
far eastern Iowa/Missouri border vicinity into central Illinois
around Springfield, with scattered vigorous thunderstorm development
being maintained, and at least some upscale growth underway.  As the
upscale growth continues, the lingering risk for severe hail
probably will diminish further during the next few hours.  However,
it is possible that consolidating convection could be accompanied by
increasing potential for strong surface gusts.  Confidence in this
scenario remains low, but trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a new severe weather watch.

...Kerr.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_r_HgNF4z9hW26IbHsHA4InwpCyfz2zOBG1W432TzqEnORJrrafaBA3jql3U1nYpW4dDTuZKE=
HPl5o6XCJLNxQUxakk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   40729223 41149135 41119046 40658944 40028981 39969066
            40389201 40729223=20


=3D =3D =3D
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