Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 07 2023 06:01:08 ACUS02 KWNS 070601 SWODY2 SPC AC 070559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Monday from the Ozarks east-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur in parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. ....Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast across the central U.S. on Monday, with west-northwest mid-level flow remaining in the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks by late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the south of the front will likely result in moderate instability over much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front near peak heating, with convection moving east-southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Storm development may continue in the evening in areas with sufficient instability. Some model forecasts suggest that a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet will move eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. This feature would create moderate deep-layer shear, sufficient for a severe threat. Although supercells with large hail will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicell since the deep-layer flow is forecast to be parallel to the boundary. If a line segment and cold pool can organize, then a substantial wind-damage threat could devleop. At this point, spatial uncertainty concerning a potential swath of wind damage remains uncertain. ....Southern Plains... Westerly mid-level flow, with subtle anticyclonic curvature, is forecast across the southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Although large-scale forcing should be weak, the southern Plains cap is forecast to diminish by late afternoon. This could allow for isolated convective initiation along and to the east of a dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Strong instability and relatively weak mid-level flow would favor multicells with wind-damage and hail potential. ....Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians on Monday. This area will likely be on the eastern edge of a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective development appears most likely along a gradient of instability from central Kentucky southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z suggest that 0-6 km shear will be around 30 knots and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts. ...Broyles.. 05/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .