Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 02:37:34

ACUS11 KWNS 070237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070237=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-070330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Nebraska and far
northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070237Z - 070330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A persistent storm across portions of southeastern NE may
continue to pose a risk for large hail for a few more hours.
Uncertainty on the storm longevity lends low confidence to the need
for a weather watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 0225 UTC regional radar analysis showed a severe
storm across portions of Thayer and Fillmore counties in NE. Thus
far, this storm has persisted on a narrow thetaE/buoyancy maximum
along a surface front laying across southern NE. Around 1500-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE and 40-45kt of bulk shear may continue to support
storm organization and an attendant risk for large hail as it tracks
eastward along the boundary. It is unclear how long this may
continue with the loss of diurnal heating and increasing MLCINH
noted on SPC mesoanalysis with eastward extent. Given the
uncertainty a weather watch is unlikely, though some severe risk may
persist for a few more hours into parts of southeastern NE and
extreme northeastern KS.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64FzkKAeO8yZzCxB0tJxQCBMgH2ccyEoZEWWy7VD7GoUPp7nRTmAhZ708vlwFlAl6yPVF0oSB=
aFtGLhnwvqTvAgPjQw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39799605 39789672 39929711 40089766 40379761 40519740
            40529718 40459623 40359604 40229586 40049583 39909590
            39799605=20


=3D =3D =3D
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