Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0694
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 01:13:03

ACUS11 KWNS 070112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070112=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-070245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri...southeastern Iowa
and western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 070112Z - 070245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing storms in MO and IA will likely
continue into an east/southeastward moving MCS tonight. Damaging
winds, hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. One or more
downstream weather watches is likely needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of northern MO and southeastern IA,
convective trends have shown an increase in storm mergers and
upscale growth over the last hour. Likely in response to an
increasing low-level jet evident on area VAD/VWPs, this trend is
expected to continue this evening. Hi-res guidance is in agreement
showing continued upscale growth of the ongoing convective clusters
into an east/southeastward moving MCS in the next couple of hours.
Ahead of these storms, sufficient buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of
MUCAPE) along a modified outflow boundary should support strong
updrafts. 40-50 kt of bulk shear should also be favorable for storm
organization/longevity. Storms should progress east/southeastward
along the buoyancy gradient into northeastern MO, southeastern IA
and western IL. Given the favorable buoyancy/shear, an organized MCS
capable of all hazards should evolve tonight. Downstream weather
watches will likely be needed.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4a6bnLT-49Q4kMHtLYlboHKvueCCTLvc1MigF6xZO3VUgYGvGTbuxX1nUZgph1lMTIsiVFB5j=
5BZVLbYifw7qINesvA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40578895 39628888 39198910 39078976 39289114 39509222
            39699237 39849239 40149233 41319218 41389132 41349034
            41288971 41178933 40968913 40578895=20


=3D =3D =3D
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