Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 07 2023 00:59:00

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Storms with severe hail and wind should continue across the southern
Plains into tonight. Severe thunderstorms with a continued threat of
large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado, remain a concern
across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Surface lee troughing prevails across the Plains states, with
several strong to severe thunderstorms persisting ahead of a dryline
in the southern Plains amid a modestly sheared but very unstable
environment. A warm frontal boundary is also draped across parts of
the mid-MO Valley region, where ongoing strong to severe storms are
expected to continue through tonight.

....Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley...
A pair of 2+ inch hail-producing supercells are progressing across
northern MO and may be in the process of growing upscale into an
MCS. Large hail should continue with these storms for at least a
couple more hours before the primary severe threat transitions to
damaging gusts with the materializing of an MCS. Strong
thunderstorms should also continue farther west across portions of
SD into NE for at least a couple more hours. Large hail appears to
be the main threat with these storms. Later tonight, a few
additional storms may develop across central NE. Should this occur,
these storms would have access to ample buoyancy (given 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates) and may produce an instance or two of large
hail.

....Southern Plains...
Several intense thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central
into northern TX and far southern OK. Though nocturnal cooling is
underway, 70 F surface dewpoints, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, are contributing to well over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE. As
such, strong updrafts should persist for several more hours tonight.
The more discrete storms will continue to pose a large hail threat
while merging storm clusters will foster the risk for severe gusts.
Eventually, an eastward-propagating MCS should ultimately result,
with severe gusts the primary threat later tonight across
north-central TX.

...Squitieri.. 05/07/2023

$$

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