Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0692
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 23:26:02

ACUS11 KWNS 062325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062325=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri and far southern Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 190...

Valid 062325Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 190 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk will likely be maximized along
a modified baroclinic zone across portions of northern MO and far
southern IA over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
well-developed supercell ongoing in Gentry County MO. Ahead of this
storm an outflow boundary has been modifying through the day with
around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and backed surface flow noted along and
to the south of the boundary from SPC mesoanalysis. The environment
along the boundary is strongly conducive for low-level storm
rotation with ESRH of 250-300 m2/s2. As the established supercell
tracks into this zone of enhanced shear and STP of 3-4 over the next
couple of hours, the risk for tornadoes may increase. Large hail
will also be possible given steep mid-level lapse rates and the
supercell mode. Some upscale growth is also possible, focused along
and north of the boundary, through this evening with a risk for
strong damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes as well.

...Lyons.. 05/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ANeplwpz9gKzvT90G_Mj4CaQlEQkDhBG0TotmNBFYFhlyMdJ3fJb3SNQAFnmBGzdqIt60inm=
52n5kpYMDcwXIMz4iQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40629439 40699382 40689326 40659266 40569246 40289238
            39889251 39819267 39789302 39849355 39969424 40069459
            40289473 40629439=20


=3D =3D =3D
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