Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0690
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 20:20:41

ACUS11 KWNS 062020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062020=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...mainly northern Missouri into southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 062020Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions have become favorable for isolated supercells
to develop, with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail through
early evening.

DISCUSSION...A modifying outflow boundary/warm front now stretches
from extreme southeast NE across northwest MO. Substantial TCU is
developing near a weak surface low near the NE/KS/MO border area,
with additional CU fields in the modifying air mass over southern
IA. Stable billow clouds are noted over of northern MO, but
continued air mass modification will continue. Indeed, strong
boundary-layer mixing exists from eastern KS into western MO where
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to 90s F, with surface
gusts out of the south around 25 kt.

Convergence near the weak low in combination with warming surface
temperatures are expected to result in isolated supercell
development between 21-23Z. Hodographs will favor due-east storm
motions, while strong instability and 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2
favoring both very large hail and a couple tornadoes.

...Jewell.. 05/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9hQ_G7eXa2KQoUJpHV-gXLydpiYZ2YYmNNBK_Wa8eeh3yCwxotxiCOrS4wsP9IX6UKogX9wJg=
4PEx4emDiQdu-xvU9o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41259492 41409248 40999202 40509190 40049197 39469237
            39369275 39639432 39719478 39789527 39799563 40129590
            40199592 40509575 40899553 41259492=20


=3D =3D =3D
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