Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0688
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 19:00:59

ACUS11 KWNS 061900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061900=20
ILZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061900Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail risk may persist into parts of
southern IL this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell/storm cluster has persisted
through the morning and into the afternoon across from northeast MO
into west-central IL. This activity has been tracking southeast
along the northwest to southeast oriented instability gradient.
Steep midlevel lapse rates supporting 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, and 40+
kt effective shear may continue to support periods of
organization/re-intensification through peak heating. Strong capping
will preclude surface-based convection and large hail will continue
to be the main hazard associated with this activity. Given the
isolated and sporadic nature of near-severe hail, a watch is not
expected at this time.

...Leitman/Hart.. 05/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-yYDGsvg1FmlMEZeSQAMweg9M4ikjSaHTLkaUyoAeFhpqWPkuuRK8Ho2lw8iQuoWxnlGMRDUe=
aMbOYN8CJF4KpQM40k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39328988 39438952 39408903 39218842 38918806 38508790
            38178808 38018844 38138887 38388948 38578977 38938991
            39178998 39328988=20


=3D =3D =3D
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