Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 15:55:59

AWUS01 KWNH 061555
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-062153-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061553Z - 062153Z

Summary...A marginal/isolated flash flood risk should materialize
today as storms form across the Alexandria/Lake
Charles/Lafayette/Baton Rouge areas through 22Z or so.

Discussion...An early-morning MCS moved through much of southern
Louisiana this morning, spreading widespread 0.75-1.5 inch
rainfall totals across most areas in the general vicinity of U.S.
190, I-10, and coastal areas.  Locally higher amounts have fallen
closer to the coast.  In the wake of this lead MCS, renewed
convective development has materialized just south of Alexandria,
with a more favorable east-to-west orientation for
training/back-building and more prolonged heavy rainfall.   MRMS
rainfall rates were peaking at close to 1.5 inch/hr with this
activity, and while these rates remain well below FFG thresholds
for most of the region, the thought is that localized/urbanized
regions could experience excessive runoff through at least 21-22Z
pending convective trends.

Another couple factors that seem to favor backbuilding in this
region is 1) airmass recovery, with strong (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
destabilization rebuilding into the area from the southwest over
time and 2) the suggestion of weak mid-level wave(s) over
southeast Texas that should traverse the region as peak heating is
occurring.  Again, isolated flash flood potential should exist -
especially if backbuilding/training on the western flank of the
developing convection near/just north of U.S. 190 can promote
2-3.5 inch/hr rain rates over more sensitive grounds.

Cook=20=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8eUgSixVpgi7YkG8vqUo8YtuWKX6MywIAde6uNuo6hChnAglNZ7-186Oh0dO6PUf-LHS=
cHoaR4pEUvDVfranRwKauzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31159235 30839121 30529032 29939015 29479028=20
            29429087 29639199 29809341 30019371 30839363=20
            31119320=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.