Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0687
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 12:45:57

ACUS11 KWNS 061245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061245=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-061445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and adjacent
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061245Z - 061445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong gusts approaching severe limits will
remain possible with a cluster of storms overspreading the New
Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain vicinities by 9-10 AM, before storms
begin to weaken farther east later this morning.

DISCUSSION...A modestly organized cluster of thunderstorms has
maintained vigorous intensity for several hours, particularly on its
southern flank, where cloud tops are coldest, lightning flash rates
are highest, and Lake Charles VWP data sampled 50 kt westerly rear
inflow at 2-5 km AGL.  This has been accompanied by occasional
surface gusts approaching severe limits.=20=20

It appears that seasonably moist easterly low-level inflow,
characterized by moderate mixed-layer CAPE, will be maintained
across and east of the New Orleans/Lake Pontchartrain vicinity
through 14-15Z.  Although there is little evident to suggest
appreciable potential for further strengthening, strong wind gusts
approaching or perhaps briefly exceeding severe limits may remain
possible, before the inflow likely becomes drier and more stable
farther to the east later this morning.

...Kerr/Grams.. 05/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5O_1fj994Pa_POq5mwi1TCwR4UiX3RIM1PEM_tn04-2i2VV5mnFXAdNZWvabGU5vLKphxNe1R=
K2Dfyyql1pyibPQXhg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30459086 30378974 30248906 29268898 29359016 29519089
            29719115 30029092 30459086=20


=3D =3D =3D
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