Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 08:30:11

FOUS30 KWBC 060829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sat May 06 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat May 06 2023 - 12Z Sun May 07 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as portions of
Texas. A quasi-stationary boundary will remain parked in the same
areas...leading to another round of convection in many of the same
places where thunderstorms occurred on Thursday night/Friday
morning and again in the early-morning hours of today.  There is a
possibility that storms will traverse flood sensitive portions of
LA and MS...including Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and Biloxi...as
the move towards the southeast.  The expectation is that some
convection will be lingering at the start of the Day 1 period but
taper off...followed by additional convection later in the
afternoon and evening.  This will keep the soils in the area
primed for additional flash flooding.  In Texas...the focus for
convection will be just a hair farther north as compared to today.
Given the antecedent conditions..the Marginal Risk area there
still looks warranted.

Bann



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Z_agpE6mXBVmotppRLyGBT3cxrhIj-iCUXp-lGiRqQg=
jVZ1Qoa2yw5bS_aYLEQLknsUC2nL9cyV3KdyAEog7YlwIX8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Z_agpE6mXBVmotppRLyGBT3cxrhIj-iCUXp-lGiRqQg=
jVZ1Qoa2yw5bS_aYLEQLknsUC2nL9cyV3KdyAEogBTJsA5s$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Z_agpE6mXBVmotppRLyGBT3cxrhIj-iCUXp-lGiRqQg=
jVZ1Qoa2yw5bS_aYLEQLknsUC2nL9cyV3KdyAEogOqMDPoA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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