Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 06 2023 07:14:27 ACUS03 KWNS 060714 SWODY3 SPC AC 060713 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Monday from the Ozarks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. ....Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is forecast to develop across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to be located from the Ozarks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley by afternoon. South of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F, with moderate instability developing across much of the moist sector by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases along the front, scattered convective initiation should take place. Thunderstorm development will likely be aided by any shortwave trough passing from west to east across the region. Forecast soundings near the expected position of the front by 00Z/Tuesday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should support severe storm development. The forecast wind profile would support supercells, although short multicell line segments also will be possible. A severe threat appears most likely with any cell cluster that can grow upscale and remain close to but south of the front. The main uncertainty in this forecast is the position of the front and magnitude of destabilization that will be realized Monday afternoon. Model consensus places the strongest instability along an east-to-west corridor from western Missouri eastward to far southwestern Indiana, where the slight risk is currently forecast. ....Southern and Central Plains... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the southern and central Plains on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the eastern half of Texas extending northward into southeast Kansas. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place across most of this airmass. A capping inversion and lack of large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. However, a few cells could initiate to the east of the dryline, in areas where instability and low-level convergence become maximized. Any storm that can overcome the cap, could have potential for large hail and isolated wind damage. ...Broyles.. 05/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .