Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 05 2023 23:47:38

AWUS01 KWNH 052347
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 PM EDT Fri May 05 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052344Z - 060345Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding from rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr and  totals of 3 to 5+ inches will be possible from slow
moving convection in central TX over the next few hours.

Discussion...23Z radar imagery showed an expanding but relatively
concentrated cluster of thunderstorms over central TX, located
along/just ahead of somewhat ill-defined dryline/leading edge of
drier air, extending from roughly MWL to just west of HDO. A
secondary convergence axis/dryline was located farther west near
DYS and OZA. One cell in particular, over San Saba County, has
shown signs of upstream regeneration while the leading edge has
begun to propagate southeastward. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s
to mid-70s have resulted in large MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000
J/kg via the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis.

Expectations are for the cluster of storms to continue to
grow/expand within the strong instability pool, with a general
movement toward the east. If storms are able to sufficiently
expand and form into an MCS with a sizable cold pool, Corfidi
vectors indicate an east-southeastward movement to the storm
cluster but there will be the potential for stalling/training
along the southwestern flank. This may occur with an increase in
the low level jet which is forecast by the RAP to reach 20-30 kt
over west-central TX, but with some increase in magnitude along
the I-35 corridor as well, even if not as strong as farther to the
west. Also, additional cells may form farther south along the
leading dryline axis given recent trends in visible satellite
showing attempts at development as far south as Frio and La Salle
counties. The environment is supportive of 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall
rates within slow moving cores and localized totals of 3 to
perhaps 5 or more inches.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9kVx-fy7XaDFmL-uQcwa8I9aJg5qisQ-da9dWUnWuqCNqiGgR-UTNDxWNGboQDHehOQA=
ohKxJ402RNfHjsZDPbsAJrU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32249725 32159651 31999614 31459597 30899610=20
            30219673 29459820 29599885 30559903 31099883=20
            32169825=20

=3D =3D =3D
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