Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0683
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 05 2023 23:30:23

ACUS11 KWNS 052330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052330=20
TXZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187...

Valid 052330Z - 060100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187
continues.

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue across WW187 into
this evening. Large to very large hail and isolated damaging gusts
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
clusters of severe storms including supercells were ongoing east of
the dryline, across portions of WW187. Ahead of these storms, very
warm surface temperatures in the 90s F and surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s F were supporting 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the
deep reservoir of buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates, robust
updrafts should continue into this evening. Vertical shear is not
particularly strong, but 30-35 kt of effective shear from area
VAD/VWPS will continue to support supercell structures capable of
large to very large hail in excess of 2 inches. Additional storm
development/clustering may occur into this evening as the low-level
jet begins to intensify. With steep low-level laps rates, isolated
damaging gusts may also continue into this evening.

...Lyons.. 05/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4cSnqLxh7U1h0L2n5DtV8f0AUXBD8a8ylfZan8PTgAvjJY_ZMOi0s_ynbbVmo2GdetrNN_0-v=
b4987hgRwV0ctUK5_I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31139951 31659939 32639878 33119820 33379737 33479696
            33519647 33469637 33029641 32269657 30169709 30179754
            30119896 30439957 31139951=20


=3D =3D =3D
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