Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 06 2023 00:49:23

ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across
central Texas and in the central Great Plains this evening. Large
hail and locally damaging winds are possible.

....01z Update...

Short-wave trough is ejecting into the central High Plains early
this evening. Deep convection has responded to this feature and is
conglomerating over western NE, with discrete supercells continuing
just north of the KS/NE border over southern portions of ww188.
Increasing nocturnal LLJ, aided by the short wave, should aid
eastward propagation of ongoing convection tonight. Large hail is
common within the supercell structures and this trend should
continue for several hours after sunset. Ultimately an MCS should
progress across the central Plains within a favored corridor of
low-level warm advection.  Refer to MCD #684 for further short-term
details.

Farther south across the southern Plains, very weak short-wave
trough appears to be associated with the ongoing convection located
over central TX. Shear is much weaker across this region but
buoyancy is strong. 00z sounding from FWD, where surface dew points
are in the lower 70s, exhibits around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, though PW
values are only on the order of one inch. Even so, veering wind
profiles with height and modest shear favor a mixed mode of
supercells and clusters continuing for the next several hours. Large
hail/wind remain the primary risks.

...Darrow.. 05/06/2023

$$

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