Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 05 2023 09:41:59

AWUS01 KWNH 050941
FFGMPD
LAZ000-051240-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 AM EDT Fri May 05 2023

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050940Z - 051240Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected over the
next several hours near the I-10 and I-12 cooridors in southern
Louisiana.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local amounts to 4"
could lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...Right-moving convection is showing some slight
backbuilding character as it moves through the rice fields of
south-central Louisiana not far north of I-10 ahead of an
advancing pool of 500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE.  CIN is minimal in
this area per SPC mesoanalyses.  Precipitable water values of
1.5-1.9" lie across this area per GPS data.  Effective bulk shear
is near 50 kt along with fairly unidirectional west to
west-southwest flow organized the short band.  Meanwhile,
convection is broadening in coverage near and behind an outflow
boundary moving in from the west-northwest, which could briefly
broaden the scope of the heavy rainfall.

The mesoscale guidance is slow and either a bit too far north of
south with this activity at the present time -- nothing is ideal.=20
The expectation is that the cold pool will overtake the short
training band within 2-3 hours, leading to a short period of a
heavy rain/flash flooding threat.  With urban areas such as Baton
Rouge and New Orleans downstream, flash flooding can't be ruled
out.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts of 4" are
possible before the cold pool can force forward propagation and
lead to a reduction of hourly and overall rain totals.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7PsLevar9rgrCziCkwNoLr88wpya_NZsnDXNgyVc_HHHOXLRlRS7EvG_V1VuZjDuKk2_=
qvP2yRFsnC-WQBKiVRg5rWo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30949228 30839109 30028993 29949111 30399271=20
            30699315=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.