Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 05 2023 08:39:20

ACUS48 KWNS 050839
SWOD48
SPC AC 050837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to remain in
place from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into
the Mississippi Valley. In the central U.S., mid-level flow is
forecast to turn from the west-southwest to west-northwest as an
upper-level ridge gradually builds northward. Thunderstorm
development will be possible each day in and around the vicinity of
the ridge, across parts of the moist sector. Isolated severe storms
may develop in the afternoon and evening across the northern parts
of this moist airmass, where strong deep-layer shear is forecast.
Due to the lack of focus within the overall pattern, predictability
is low concerning any potential severe threat areas early in the
week.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
On Thursday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop in parts of
the northern High Plains, as an upper-level ridge remains over parts
of the eastern U.S. This pattern would be favorable for moisture
advection northward across the Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorm
development would be most likely in the eastern part of the system,
from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. The same general pattern
is forecast on Friday, but with the moist axis a bit further to the
east. This would make the most favorable area for thunderstorm
development across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A
severe threat will be possible each day in parts of the
north-central U.S., but predictability remains low concerning any
potential severe threat areas.

...Broyles.. 05/05/2023

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