Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0679
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 05 2023 06:53:17

ACUS11 KWNS 050653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050652=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-050845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Texas into central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050652Z - 050845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms is generally weakening,
but could continue to occasionally pose a risk for strong gusts
approaching severe limits across the Fort Polk and Alexandria
vicinities through 3-4 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...The organized cluster of storms now east of the
Nacogdoches and Lufkin vicinities has maintained considerable
strength, but coldest cloud tops have recently been warming and
lightning flash rates have declined a bit.  General weakening trends
seem likely to continue as the eastward propagation tends to outpace
eastward boundary-layer moistening toward/into the lower Mississippi
Valley.  However, based on trends in surface observations, it might
not be out of the question that a corridor of moisture advection
across the Fort Polk through Alexandria vicinities could maintain at
least modestly unstable updraft inflow another couple of hours.  And
convection overspreading this region may be slowest to weaken
through 08-09Z, perhaps accompanied by a continuing risk for strong
surface gusts occasionally approaching severe limits.

...Kerr/Grams.. 05/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Mv7WM5pGsQ3YnPh1ByBEjwXnTHinRgv9hgX-8wLNibtgS1oc8dWID4YMyv0y_SM8Nrr3qufX=
tiC60YvVUkrgZNuoPI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31409381 31739379 31609308 31389243 31139198 30599243
            31169417 31409381=20


=3D =3D =3D
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