Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 05 2023 05:29:16 ACUS01 KWNS 050529 SWODY1 SPC AC 050527 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Central Plains... 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across AZ into the southern Rockies where it will weaken before ejecting into NE during the late evening. High-level diffluent flow aloft and weak height falls will encourage a lee surface low to be dislodged off the higher terrain of northeast CO into south-central NE during the overnight hours. This evolution will ensure easterly low-level component across NE which will maintain moisture/instability for potential organized convection beginning late afternoon. Strong surface heating across western KS into southwest NE should result in convective temperatures being breached across this part of the central High Plains by 22z. Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop ahead of a short-wave trough that will time favorably for supporting upscale growth during the evening hours. Strong wind profiles will support supercells and large hail should be the primary threat. Increasing LLJ during the evening is expected to aid eastward propagation across NE after sunset. ....Southern Plains... Weak height rises are forecast across the southern Plains Friday. Even so, early-morning water-vapor imagery appears to depict a very weak short-wave trough over northern Mexico. This feature should track northeast into TX around peak heating. Strong boundary-layer heating will result in very steep low-level lapse rates along/west of the dryline across the southern Plains where surface temperatures are forecast to exceed 90F. This will result in negligible inhibition by late afternoon such that isolated high-based convection is expected to develop. If the southern-stream short-wave ejects into west TX as it currently appears it will, this should support diurnally driven storms within an environment favorably sheared for supercells. Forecast soundings suggest very large hail may accompany this activity as it propagates slowly east during the evening. ....Lower MS Valley... Early this morning two MCSs are propagating east-southeast toward the Arklatex as the LLJ veers into this region. This activity should continue across the lower MS Valley this morning, likely focusing along/near the warm front draped across LA. With low-level moisture expected to gradually return to the lower MS Valley there should be at least some risk for wind/hail with the ongoing/regenerative portions of these MCSs. ...Darrow/Lyons.. 05/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .