Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0675
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 04 2023 22:05:43

ACUS11 KWNS 042205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042205=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-042330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas and far southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...

Valid 042205Z - 042330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.

SUMMARY...Organizing supercells will continue to pose a risk for
very large hail (2+ in) and a few tornadoes into this evening across
WW185.

DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
supercells organizing near the dryline/outflow intersection across
portions of northwest TX and far southern OK. Along and south of the
outflow, afternoon cloud breaks have allowed surface temperatures to
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s F in the wake of earlier
convection. The warming temperatures, and surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s F were supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE within the
modified air mass. As storms continue to mature and move eastward
along the Red River, strong updrafts should persist as they move
east into this evening. Deep-layer shear of 40-45 kt observed from
the KFDR VAD/VWP will continue to favor a discrete cellular mode
conducive for organized supercells. Large to very large hail (2+ in)
will be likely with storms through this evening. While low-level
shear is not overly strong, enlarging low-level hodographs near
sunset from an increasing low-level jet, may pose a risk for a few
tornadoes as well. The greatest severe risk appears likely from
portions of the far southeastern TX Panhandle, along the Red River,
into portions of far southern OK and north TX over the next few
hours.

...Lyons.. 05/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6H6fg_5GY2zFghLhB7n6j1IPozzlAxtNyVOcEMJBgVhwhVwIYXED955AdvbS2K5qqioBvOXiM=
NcfqhhTZmoZ_7PfsUs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   33419923 33559966 33720013 33880054 34040077 34220075
            34300048 34370008 34419934 34399778 34279739 33959740
            33669770 33499812 33419842 33419923=20


=3D =3D =3D
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