Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0674
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 04 2023 19:48:38

ACUS11 KWNS 041948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041948=20
TXZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023

Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas to the middle Rio
Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041948Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail will
be possible from late this afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field near a dryline
extending from northwest TX southwestward toward the Rio Grande.
Winds have veered to west/southwest behind the dryline, with
temperatures currently into the mid 80s F. East of the dryline,
cirrus has generally thinned, with areas of heating in the moist air
mass.  A moisture gradient does exist from central into southwest
TX, and is not expected to move much in the near term.

Continued heating as well as deepening of the moist boundary layer
ahead of the dryline may yield several storms by late afternoon,
perhaps aided by a weak midlevel feature moving across southwestern
TX. Little else will be present to support a more organized severe
threat, but trends will be monitored for signs of increasing severe
storm coverage through early evening. Modest instability and
favorably long hodographs should favor mainly hail.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7F_OtK63pH48SD6cWAkAXnGq5YDb1_rycZAYeCJyS-qGi84b6uI21qh21dKR3BBO4vEIXzP7J=
eE3473D1o_yVG6xeR8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29690251 30640192 31520135 32160107 32710093 32910055
            32959967 32399919 31679921 30779949 29760017 29140079
            29470120 29700143 29780223 29690251=20


=3D =3D =3D
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