Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 04 2023 08:47:43

ACUS48 KWNS 040847
SWOD48
SPC AC 040845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On D4/Sunday, some severe threat is likely to materialize across
parts of the Midwest and mid-MS Valley, as increasing low-level
moisture will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy near and
south of an increasingly diffuse warm front. However, stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer shear and any embedded shortwave troughs
are likely to remain displaced somewhat northward of the stronger
instability. As a result, the greatest relative severe threat may be
tied to storms developing near the warm frontal zone and any remnant
outflow boundaries from overnight/morning convection, and
predictability regarding the placement of those features is low at
this forecast range. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will also
remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, within a
strongly unstable and weakly forced regime.

On D5/Monday, some severe threat may spread eastward into the OH
Valley, and persist across parts of the southern Plains/MS Valley.
However, guidance generally suggests that any remaining surface
lows/boundaries will become increasingly ill-defined in the absence
of stronger large-scale forcing, resulting in low confidence
regarding organized severe thunderstorm potential.

For D6/Tuesday and beyond, spread in deterministic and ensemble
guidance notably increases regarding the upper-level pattern. In
general, some reamplification of the pattern appears possible,
though the potential for any stronger shortwave or longwave troughs
to impinge upon greater instability remains quite uncertain at this
forecast range.

...Dean.. 05/04/2023

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