Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 04 2023 07:29:07

ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AND WEST-CENTRAL
IL...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN OK...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Midwest and southern Plains on Saturday.

....Lower MO Valley into the mid MS Valley...
A warm front is forecast to move northward into parts of the lower
MO Valley and mid MS Valley on Saturday, as a series of
mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move through the central/northern
Plains. Warm temperatures and increasing low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) near/south of the warm front during the
afternoon/evening, with moderate elevated buoyancy expected north of
the front. Capping may prohibit diurnal storm initiation across the
warm sector, but surface-based development cannot be ruled out near
the intersection of the warm front and a surface trough/dryline
across northwest MO into far southwest IA. Should this occur,
sufficient deep-layer shear would support a supercell or two with
all severe hazards possible. Otherwise, somewhat elevated convection
may increase Saturday night across larger portion of southern IA
into MO, within a low-level warm advection regime. Elevated buoyancy
may be sufficient to support isolated hail and localized
strong/damaging gusts with the strongest storms.

....TX into far southern OK...
Strong heating of a moist low-level airmass across the southern
Plains will again result in the development of strong to locally
extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg) by late afternoon.
Large-scale forcing appears nebulous at this time, but strong
heating/mixing near the dryline will remove MLCINH and may support
isolated storm development. Deep-layer flow/shear may be slightly
weaker than previous days, but effective shear generally in the
25-35 kt would support the potential for organized multicells and
perhaps a supercell or two, given the strong instability. A threat
for hail and severe gusts would accompany any sustained deep
convection across this area.

...Dean.. 05/04/2023

$$

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