Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 04 2023 06:01:35 ACUS02 KWNS 040601 SWODY2 SPC AC 040559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across the lower Mississippi Valley, and across parts of Nebraska. ....TX... Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE potentially increasing above 3000 J/kg) is expected to develop across much of central/east TX on Friday afternoon, along/east of a dryline. While this region will be on the eastern periphery of the upper-level trough across the western CONUS, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered storm development during the late afternoon across parts of central TX, possibly related to a low amplitude shortwave trough moving out of Mexico within the broader southwesterly flow aloft. This scenario appears plausible, with strong heating/mixing helping to erode the capping inversion through the day. Effective shear of 30-35 kt will be only marginally favorable for organized storms, but a supercell or two is possible given the magnitude of the instability. Hail (possibly very large) would be the primary initial threat, though with slow storm motion and relatively weak low-level flow, outflow-driven severe gusts will also become possible. There is some potential for one or two outflow-driven clusters to move eastward during the evening, though a general weakening trend is expected Friday night due to increasing MLCINH. ....NE... Modest low-level moistening to the north/northeast of a surface low across the central High Plains will result in weak to locally moderate destabilization across much of NE during the afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough moving northeastward from the southern Rockies will help to initiate convection, with some upscale growth possible into the evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the region. Isolated severe hail and wind will be possible with the strongest storms. ....Lower MS Valley... Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding the convective evolution on Friday across the lower MS Valley, with a remnant MCS possibly moving across portions of the area in the morning. Low-level moistening from the west will lead to some destabilization by the afternoon/evening, and storms may develop near the moisture/instability gradient within a low-level warm advection regime. Modest west-northwesterly flow aloft will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, and isolated instances of hail and/or damaging wind will be possible. ...Dean.. 05/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .