Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 04 2023 00:50:03 ACUS01 KWNS 040049 SWODY1 SPC AC 040048 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of southern High Plains. ....Southern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the southern High Plains, with mid-level moisture streaming into the southern Plains from the southwest. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of central and west Texas with a trough located in the TransPecos Valley. Thunderstorms are ongoing in far west Texas and southeast New Mexico along and to the west of a moist axis, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Further north, additional thunderstorms are ongoing in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles near an axis of instability. The latest mesoscale analysis suggests that MLCAPE is generally between 500 and 1500 J/kg across most of the southern High Plains. The instability, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, should be enough for an isolated severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with the more intense multicells. However, deep-layer shear is generally weak across the southern High Plains. The 00Z soundings at Amarillo and Midland both have 0-6 km shear below 30 knots. This, along with the presence of the upper-level ridge, should marginalize any severe threat this evening. ...Broyles.. 05/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .