Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0672
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 03 2023 20:43:33

ACUS11 KWNS 032043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032042=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...the TX/OK
Panhandles...far southeastern CO...and southwestern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032042Z - 032315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread east-southeastward over the next few hours.
Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently formed over the higher terrain
of the Raton Pass/Mesa vicinity and eastward into parts of
northeastern NM and southeastern CO. Although modestly forced, this
activity is occurring along a weak surface lee trough. Current
expectations are for these thunderstorms to move generally
east-southeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into the
early evening. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-30+ F are
present with a deeply/well-mixed boundary layer. Occasional strong
to severe downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores,
especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a small cluster or two.
Isolated hail also appears possible. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt are somewhat marginal to support more
than an isolated severe threat. Therefore, watch issuance will
probably not be needed.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6hiOoDSus2qldGl9OjQoWghiVSh1zucT6yPSmJJAz5FlCIkaY3VIEd7tU3VzlzAe7kX4IZLyP=
zfIlBX3gRSEri8ksj0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35310299 35900402 36250426 36800363 37510227 37660148
            37400070 36370026 35730061 35180164 35310299=20


=3D =3D =3D
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