Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0670
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 03 2023 18:55:32

ACUS11 KWNS 031855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031854=20
TXZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031854Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind risk may exist with developing
thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The cu field has recently become agitated along an
outflow-reinforced front across western north TX. Latest visible and
day cloud phase satellite imagery suggest at least one thunderstorm
may develop and persist along this boundary. The low/mid-level flow
field remains modest across this region per recent area VWPs, but
enough veering/strengthening with height may still support 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft
organization, including marginal supercell potential. If a robust
thunderstorm can form and persist, it would tend to move slowly
east-southeastward along/near the surface boundary. Around 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should
support some threat for isolated large hail. Occasional
severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen. Current expectations are for the severe
threat to remain quite isolated, so watch issuance is not currently
expected.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Qn6ZQhFmF0R3kjcYl8Kh30-pp1XK1dKWIlj0Zw07LIxfKEi_qNkVCNuHBKCxf-J1E4_VTBhd=
q9yOM3Y9STbpsk_X8o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32609969 32820000 33229992 33329953 33189863 32779850
            32519900 32609969=20


=3D =3D =3D
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