Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 03 2023 08:46:32

ACUS48 KWNS 030846
SWOD48
SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A fairly active extended-range period appears possible, with an
upper-level trough expected to persist for several days across the
western CONUS, and a reservoir of moderate to strong buoyancy
expected to be in place across the southern/central Plains into the
lower/mid MS Valley. However, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the evolution of individual shortwave troughs within this
pattern, and there is some potential for stronger deep-layer
flow/shear to remain mostly displaced from the more favorable
instability.

On D4/Saturday, moderate to strong buoyancy will likely extend from
TX northward into the lower MO valley, and isolated diurnal
thunderstorm development will be possible. Stronger flow aloft is
likely to remain northwest of this region through the day, but
deep-layer shear may be marginally sufficient for a few severe
storms. Some threat for strong storms may also evolve across parts
of the Southeast, within a modest northwesterly flow regime.

A similar scenario to D4/Saturday may evolve each day into early
next week across the Plains into the Midwest, though predictability
begins to wane with time regarding the surface and upper-level
pattern. A more organized and widespread severe episode could evolve
if a stronger shortwave emerges from the western trough into the
Plains, but confidence in that scenario occurring on any particular
day remains too low to include 15% probabilities.

...Dean.. 05/03/2023

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